Why Iran is Also Attacking Ukraine Now — RealLifeLore

RealLifeLore Infographic Summary

The war advantages of Ukrainians and Russians, the formation of a Russian-Iranian military alliance, and geopolitical strategies in the Middle East, including opposition to the unipolar world order by Russia, China, and Iran.

Table of Contents

1. The War Advantages of Ukrainians and Russians | 0:00:00-0:02:20
2. Russian-Iranian Military Alliance | 0:02:20-0:10:00
3. Saddam Hussein’s Invasion of Iran | 0:10:00-0:11:20
4. The Soviet Decision to Invade Afghanistan in 1980 | 0:11:20-0:16:00
5. Iran's Geopolitical Strategy in the Middle East | 0:16:00-0:20:30
6. The Expulsion of Western Powers from the Middle East | 0:20:30-0:23:38
7. Trade Between Russia and India | 0:23:38-0:26:40
8. Reasons for Iran Supplying Russian Side | 0:26:40-0:34:00
9. Russia, China, and Iran’s Opposition to the Unipolar World Order | 0:34:00-10:09:53

https://youtu.be/LXIu9YEr7UM

The War Advantages of Ukrainians and Russians | 0:00:00-0:02:20

Ukrainians possess an advantage that the Russians inherently do not. They have the vast, almost limitless resources of the American and Western European military-industrial complexes supporting them. Equipment such as tanks, guns, artillery and munitions, produced in European and American factories, which the Russians cannot destroy, continue to supply Ukrainian soldiers and partisans. Although Russia has more than three times Ukraine's population for potential manpower, the conflict progressively transforms into a brutal war of attrition. It's a contest between Russia's superior ability to replenish its manpower and Ukraine's superior ability to replenish its equipment and supplies.

After unprecedented Western financial sanctions, which largely cut off and isolated it from global trade, the Russian government faced considerable challenges in replenishing their losses in tanks, aircraft artillery, especially microchips and other advanced weapons systems, to continue an effective 21st-century war. By the end of 2022, Iran emerged as the primary ally supplying Russia with much of the equipment needed for its war effort. During the 2022-2023 winter, hundreds of Iranian-manufactured kamikaze drones, dubbed the Shahed-136, ominously appeared across the Ukrainian battlefield under Russian direction. Russia utilized swarms of these Iranian-made drones to churn Ukrainian civil infrastructure into debris by overwhelming their air defenses with sheer numbers. This strategy significantly disrupted Ukrainian power infrastructure, resulting in approximately half of Ukraine's electric grid getting knocked offline in a calculated campaign of intimidation. Yet assistance from Iran extends beyond these drones.

Moreover, Iran has sent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to support Russia. The IRGC, known as the unconventional, asymmetric, and ideological military segment of the Iranian armed forces, dispatched military advisors and soldiers to Russian-held portions of Ukraine by the end of 2022. To bolster the Russian offensive during the Ukrainian invasion, Iran supplied ammunition, artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and body armor, mirroring the support given to Ukraine by Americans and Europeans.

Russian-Iranian Military Alliance | 0:02:20-0:06:40

The growing cooperation between Moscow and Tehran extends far beyond the borders of Ukraine. The world may be witnessing the emergence of a robust Russian-Iranian military alliance that could significantly influence the 21st century in the region. From a geopolitical standpoint, this cooperation is beneficial for both parties.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Federation faced an unprecedented wave of financial sanctions from Western and Western-aligned countries worldwide. As a result, it quickly became the most heavily sanctioned regime globally, with more than triple the number of sanctions leveled against the world’s second most heavily sanctioned country, Iran. As 2022 ended and 2023 began, both countries ranked as the top two most financially isolated states globally, leaving them with few trading options besides each other.

Consequently, Russian exports to Iran have increased by over 27% since the invasion of Ukraine, while Iranian exports to Russia have risen by more than 10%. Russia has agreed to invest over $40 billion in developing Iran’s natural gas infrastructure. Additionally, the Russians assisted the Iranians in launching a satellite last August, which, according to the Pentagon, is aiding Iran’s drone operations over Ukraine.

While ideologically opposed at the national level, Iran and Russia perceive themselves as sharing the same common enemy — the United States and the collective West. Over the years, they have continually evaluated their stance against each other. Iran and Russia also complement each other militarily. The Iranians can supply the Russians with ample ammunition, drones, rockets, missiles, and body armor for their ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Conversely, the Russians are actively providing the Iranians with advanced fighter jets, helicopters, and air defense systems like the S-300 and S-400. These are essential for defending Iranian nuclear research facilities against potential Israeli or American airstrikes. There’s even a possibility that Russia might assist Iran in developing its own nuclear weapon.

However, the increasing partnership between Iran and Russia, particularly in Ukraine, seems like a strange deviation in history. Much like Russia and China, Russia and Iran have been major rivals and bitter enemies throughout their history. Underneath their cooperation, historic tensions continue to simmer, fueled by centuries of conflict, mutual mistrust, and betrayals.

Historically, since establishing diplomatic relations, Russia and Persia (as Iran was known) have waged multiple wars, mainly over competing influences and interests in the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and the Caucasus region.

By the turn of the 19th century, the Qajar dynasty of Iran controlled almost all of what constitutes modern-day Iran’s borders, plus the South Caucasus. This area comprises the current states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, much of Georgia, and the now Russian territory of Dagestan. The Iranians had maintained control over these territories for centuries until 1804 when the Russian Empire began invading and gradually conquering the area. In two separate treaties signed in 1813 and 1828, the Russians annexed territories from Iran that would later represent modern-day Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Dagestan. These regions would remain a part of Russia and the Soviet Union for nearly the next two centuries until the 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed. However, Russian influence in this former Iranian region perseveres. Dagestan is still regarded as a key Russian territory, while South Ossetia and Georgia are effectively under Russian military occupation.

Memberships in Moscow’s CSTO Military Alliance | 0:06:40-0:10:00

Armenia is also a member of Moscow’s CSTO military alliance. For the past two centuries, Persian and Iranian nationalists have regretted the loss of the South Caucasus to the Russians, viewing it as a national embarrassment and humiliation. However, this wouldn’t be the last time that Russians and Iranians clashed.

Throughout the 19th century, the British Empire’s primary geopolitical objective was to prevent the Russian Empire’s expansion across Central Asia towards British India and the Indian Ocean. In this region, the Russian Navy could potentially use newly acquired ports to challenge Britain’s existing naval dominance in the Indian Ocean.

In 1907, the two colonial empires reached a compromise by effectively carving up Iran. In 1941, both the British and the Soviets jointly invaded Iran, toppling the ruling Shah to ensure the country remained open for Allied supply routes that were ferrying essential war materials to support the Soviet Eastern Front. The Soviets occupied parts of the country for five years until 1946.

However, the Iran that surfaced under the rule of the previous Shah’s son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, became an autocratic yet strongly pro-American and pro-Western state in the subsequent Cold War. It was firmly against the spread of communism further into the Middle East. During the 1960s and 70s, Imperial Iran effectively served as America’s enforcer in the Middle East, protecting the Persian Gulf and its supply of half the world’s known oil reserves from Soviet encroachments.

Relations between Tehran and Moscow remain strained. However, a significant event occurred in 1979 that changed everything: the Islamic Revolution in Iran. This alteration significantly altered the geopolitical calculus of the entire Middle East. The distinctly pro-American Shah was abruptly deposed, and the conservative, anti-American Ayatollah Khamenei assumed power. The emergent Iran under Khamenei’s leadership was declared as the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocratic state led by the ultra-conservative Iranian Shiite Muslim clergy, with Khamenei himself as the supreme leader.

Khamenei was straightforward about his intention to propagate Iran’s Islamic revolution abroad to every Muslim country and region worldwide. His ultimate goal was to gradually unite the Islamic world under Iranian clerical rule and to completely obliterate the state of Israel. Nevertheless, these ambitious and forceful objectives led to conflict, following the storming of the American embassy in Tehran and the abduction of 52 American diplomats in late 1979. As a result, the United States severed its ties with Iran, and the two nations have been entrenched in enmity for more than four decades with no official relations.

Saddam Hussein’s Invasion of Iran: The Beginning of a Long Rivalry | 0:10:00-0:11:20

Encouraged by the sudden withdrawal of American and Israeli troops, support from Iran, and Iran’s internal revolutionary chaos, Saddam Hussein’s Arab nationalist and nominally secular regime in Iraq feared the possibility of the Islamic Republic exporting the Islamic Revolution into Iraq’s Shia Muslim majority. This prospect threatened to undermine Saddam’s authority. Consequently, determined to halt the revolution and gain control over Iran’s Arab-majority province of Khuzestan, which accounted for around 90% of Iran’s oil reserves, Saddam initiated a full-scale invasion of Iran just one year after the Shah was overthrown.

Saddam’s invasion would ultimately be financed with billions of dollars by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates. These Arab monarchies feared the Iranian clergy’s call for revolution and the potential toppling of their own monarchies. This marked the beginning of a long-standing rivalry between the nobility and monarchists in Saudi Arabia and the clerics in Iran that persists to this day. However, Iran’s Islamic revolution also triggered uprisings in predominantly Muslim populations.

The Soviet Decision to Invade Afghanistan in 1980 | 0:11:20-0:16:00

The Soviet Union’s decision to invade Afghanistan in 1980 stemmed from a desire to support the Afghan communist regime and prevent the spread of the Islamic revolution. This action led to conflicts with Iran, which were ameliorated when the Soviets withdrew in 1989. By 2000, Iran had become a significant customer of Russian arms and in 2007, Russia agreed to supply Iran with the S-300 missile defense system. The alliance between Moscow and Tehran strengthened during the Syrian civil war in 2011 when both parties supported the Assad regime against common adversaries such as the US and Israel. The Syrian regime’s alignment with the Soviet Union during the Cold War resulted in the establishment of a Soviet naval facility in Tartus. This base gave Soviet and subsequent Russian warships and submarines free access to the Mediterranean theater without having to navigate the NATO-controlled Turkish Straits en route to their home ports.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited control of the naval facilities at Tartus. When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 and the fall of the Assad regime seemed imminent, Moscow feared that a pro-Western regime could supplant Assad and potentially terminate Russia’s lease on Tartus port. Such a course of events would hinder the Russian Navy’s operational efficacy in the Mediterranean region and its ability to challenge NATO’s authority. In order to stave off this possibility, Russia began deploying tens of thousands of soldiers and mercenaries to Syria in 2015 to prop up the pro-Moscow regime. Concurrently, the Russian Air Force conducted over 70,000 air strikes against various internal adversaries of the Assad regime.

This military intervention resulted in a decisive strategic victory for the Kremlin, as Assad’s control over Syria expanded at the expense of his opposition. In gratitude for Russian aid, Assad granted Russia a lucrative deal for the naval facility at Tartus. Starting in 2017, Russia obtained full sovereign control over the Tartus base until 2066 without any financial obligation or subjection to Syrian legal jurisdiction.

Tartus essentially became a sovereign outpost of the Russian Federation in Syria, located on the Mediterranean coast. This location allows them to station up to 11 warships at a time and even store nuclear weapons. This position secures Russia's southern flank against NATO and the Mediterranean Sea, a feat significantly aided by Iran. For the Islamic Republic, maintaining the Assad regime in Syria holds strategic importance, albeit for completely different reasons. Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon comprise the key parts of the axis of resistance, as the Iranians call it.

Iran's Geopolitical Strategy in the Middle East | 0:16:00-0:20:30

Iran’s geopolitical strategy aims to counter perceived enemies across the Middle East, namely the United States, Israel, and Gulf-era monarchies, in that order of severity. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which transformed Iran from an ally of Israel and America into an unapologetic enemy, the country has found common ground with the Assad regime in Syria. Despite significant ideological differences between theocratic Islamic nationalism and nominally secular Arab nationalism, they share the same enemies.

Syria has been at war with Israel since 1948, refusing to acknowledge Israeli statehood. Syria controls the Golan Heights, which it seized during the Six-Day War and unilaterally annexed in 1981. The Assad regime in Syria is predominantly Alawite Muslim, aligning with Iran's Shia Muslim interests against Israel and the U.S. influence in the Middle East.

The cooperation between Saddam Hussein and Assad's regime in Syria was hindered by Saddam's aspiration for senior leadership. His invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and preparations to invade Saudi Arabia led to a shift in Arab and U.S. sentiment against him. The Gulf War of 1991 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 aimed to prevent Saddam from controlling the Persian Gulf's oil supply. However, the U.S. intervention resulted in a power vacuum in Iraq, leading to Shia majority rule. Iran aims to keep Iraq decentralized to inhibit anti-Iran figures and maintain supply routes to Syria. Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq transport weapons to Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

A political military organization in Lebanon, primarily consisting of Shia Muslims and supported by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shares the same end goals as the Iranian state, aiming for the unification of all Islamic peoples under one flag.

The Expulsion of Western Powers from the Middle East | 0:20:30-0:23:38

The expulsion of Western powers, perceived as imperialists and colonialists from the Middle East, led to the growth of Hezbollah. Stronger than the Lebanese state, Hezbollah played a crucial role in Iran's capacity to attack Israel and project power into the Eastern Mediterranean. However, the Syrian civil war threatened Iran's advances in Lebanon. A pro-Western regime could disrupt Iran's support for Hezbollah, adversely affecting their ability to attack Israel and project power into the Mediterranean.

The Iranians cooperated with the Russians in Syria, who were endeavoring to maintain their port and naval strategy against NATO. It was primarily the alliance of the Iranian forces and their proxies, fighting with the Assad regime on land, and the Russian air force in the skies, that restored control over most of the country to Assad by 2019. Post Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin began to depend increasingly on Iran. The Russians withdrew most of their troops, mercenaries, and equipment from Syria in order to deploy them in Ukraine. Consequently, the Iranian forces and their proxies were mostly left behind to safeguard and expand the Russians' territorial gains in Syria for the Assad regime and the crucial naval facility at Tartus.

As Western financial sanctions began to hit Russia in 2020, the two nations developed a shared antagonism towards the United States. It was predictable that Vladimir Putin would choose to make his first official state visit, post the Ukraine invasion, to Iran in July 2022. Here, he met with Iran's current supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The sanctions led to an increase in trade between Russia and Iran as Russia's access to the European market was severely reduced. They were forced to redirect their vast exports of oil and gas away from Europe and towards Asian economies such as China and India.

Trade Between Russia and India | 0:23:38-0:26:40

India has emerged as a significant ally to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began, due to India's desire to follow a policy of global non-alignment. Similar to its stance during the Cold War era, the Indian government has refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia and views the war as a predominantly European issue. In contrast to Western perspectives, India has dramatically increased their purchases of discounted Russian oil, gas, and fertilizer since the invasion began. This has not only allowed India to acquire necessary resources at a low cost but has also provided Russia with funds for their military operations. By the end of 2022, the trade volume between India and Russia had more than doubled from the previous year, and it's projected to increase further in 2023. This surge has elevated Russia to the position of India's largest supplier of oil and fertilizer. Even before the war, Russia was the biggest supplier of weapons and equipment to the Indian Armed Forces. As of 2017, 68% of India's military hardware imports were sourced from Russia, making India the second-largest customer for the Russian defense industry worldwide, after Iran.

The traditional route for Russian exports to the Indian market is from St. Petersburg through the Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits controlled by NATO. The route continues through the NATO-controlled English Channel, then the Strait of Gibraltar, across the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal, followed by the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with American and French military bases in Djibouti, and finally, across the Arabian Sea to India. This route is lengthy, expensive, and involves navigating five major narrow maritime chokepoints, four of which are heavily influenced by NATO member states and their militaries. Hence, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this route has become geopolitically precarious.

To address export challenges, Russia and India have been working on an interconnected system of railways, highways, and ships known as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The corridor would transport Russian exports directly from northern Russia to southern India. Indian studies predict that upon completion, the INSTC will reduce the cost of Russian exports to India by about 30% and cut travel time by about 40%.

Reasons for Iran Supplying Russian Side | 0:26:40-0:34:00

The plan to enable Russian exports involves loading them onto ships in the Caspian Sea, traveling into Iran, and then traversing by train and highway to Iran's southern ports on the Gulf of Oman. From there, the exports will continue across the Arabian Sea towards India by ship. This plan aims to establish Russian maritime access to the Indian Ocean, making collaboration with Iran crucial as it is a geographically key area for Russian exports to reach India. Following a meeting between Putin and the Ayatollah in June 2022, Iran began supplying Russia with drones, missiles, body armor, and more.

There are four primary reasons for this. Firstly, since the Americans are supplying the Ukrainians with American-made weapons, Iran sees this as an opportunity to test their own weaponry against the American gear. Lessons learned could prepare Iran for potential future conflict with the United States. Secondly, in return, the Russians have agreed to sell Iran advanced fighter jets like the Su-35, and potentially their advanced air defense systems such as the S-400. Iran likely wants these to defend its nuclear weapons research facilities from potential Israeli airstrikes.

The third reason is that Iran might want Russia to assist in developing a nuclear weapon. At first glance, this idea appears far-fetched. If Russia helps Iran attain a nuclear weapon, it could damage Russia's relationship with Iran's rivals that aren't Russia's enemies, like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. All three countries are significant financial partners of Russia because they buy a lot of Russia's weapons. Equipping Iran with a nuclear bomb could alienate these countries. Moreover, Israel has repeatedly stated that Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would warrant a preemptive first strike, potentially leading to war between the two nations.

Yet, if Russia's relationship with the West continues to deteriorate, they may take riskier, asymmetric actions to deflect America and the West's attention from Ukraine. Helping Iran acquire a nuclear weapon could trigger a conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, diverting the US's military attention.

Fourthly, Iran has witnessed how the United States and Western nations have avoided direct military interventions against states armed with nuclear weapons, such as North Korea after 2006, and Russia following their invasion of Ukraine. Nuclear weapons serve as an insurance policy to protect against invasion by a hostile foreign power. This observation, coupled with Iran's deteriorating influence in the Middle East since 2020 due to the US, is contributing to Iran's eagerness to support Russia against Ukraine and NATO.

After the United States brokered normalization of relations between Israel and multiple Middle Eastern countries in 2020, Iran found itself rapidly losing ground. Consequently, Iran approached both Saudi Arabia and China and agreed to an unprecedented deal in March of 2023.

Chinese mediation has led revolutionary Iran to restore diplomatic relations with its monarchist rival, Saudi Arabia, after they were severed in 2016, seven years ago. For Iran, this deal is not a peace agreement. The regime remains militantly opposed to the Saudi monarchy and its close relationship with the United States. However, the deal allows Iran to accomplish three things.

Firstly, it provides an opportunity for Iran to temporarily set aside its regional Cold War and rivalry against its perceived secondary enemy: Saudi Arabia. This allows them to focus resources on countering their perceived primary enemies, the United States and Israel. Secondly, the arrangement undermines the increasing legitimacy of American diplomacy in the Middle East by making China appear as the predominant mediator and peacemaker. Lastly, it may delay the willingness of Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations to normalize relations with Israel. They no longer perceive Iran as the main existential threat and no longer view Israel as the enemy of their enemy.

These outcomes are notwithstanding the vast differences in ideology and geopolitical goals between the regimes of Iran.

Russia, China, and Iran’s Opposition to the Unipolar World Order | 0:34:00-10:09:53

Russia, China, and Iran share a common belief that the unipolar world order dominated by the United States is nearing its end. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has been committed to undermining the American-led world order. Similarly, Russia views its war in Ukraine as a fight against NATO and the United States. The geopolitical dynamics between Russia, China, Iran, and the United States illustrate conflicting interests and alliances. For example, Russia demonstrates expansionist goals, China expresses a desire to reunify Taiwan under the Communist Party's authority, and Iran supports anti-US actions globally. The growing military alliance between Russia and Iran is particularly evident in conflicts, such as the one in Syria.